Can the Lib Dems halt their local government decline?

As we say goodbye to 2011, I am sure many of our Liberal Democrat friends will be pleased to see it go. In a recent poll, Lib Dems reportedly close the year with just a 15% approval rating. 2011 was a year that saw them nearly get wiped off the electoral map in Scotland, their defeat on the AV referendum, and the loss of just under 700 local government seats across England and Wales. With 2012 local elections fast approaching, the question remains, can the Lib Dems halt their local government decline? 

Local election results last May

The results for the Lib Dems in May last year can be interpreted in many ways. These local elections were the first time that the public had a chance to comment on the coalition. While these were local elections, austerity measures implemented by the coalition have been passed through to local authorities and front line services have been affected. This has made coalition politics, local politics. 

Voters who do not like the policies of the coalition that, in the past, had been inclined to vote Lib Dem, either did not show up at the polls or turned to Labour who profited hugely from the Lib Dems misfortune. The Labour vote increased by an average of four points more in wards that a Lib Dem was defending than it did in those that had previously been held by a Conservative. 

It may have been that Lib Dem voters who sit more to the ideological left within the party were punishing the party for getting into bed with the right. These voters were voicing their distaste for the 'cosy' relationship that Lib Dems have been exhibiting with their coalition partners. Similar concerns were echoed senior Lib Dem politicians who called for a more concerted effort to establish an independent voice within the coalition. 

Why have the Tories done ok?

The Conservative Party, however, did not do too badly in 2011 finishing with a modest gain of 77 local council seats. You may be wondering if this was about punishing the coalition, then why did the Tories do OK? Nick Clegg and his party were perceived by voters as passive enablers to a Tory lead government. Conservatives were given the credit for coalition successes while Lib Dems took the blame for coalition failures. After rolling over on tuition fees and the party's muddied stance on NHS reform, Lib Dems have simply lost the faith of much of the electorate. 

It also could be that being in opposition is easier than being in government. Electoral downturn is common for the party in government at the time. You only have to look across the pond to America to see the truth in this. Obama’s party got a beating in the midterm elections for House of Representatives and lost control of the chamber. 

This however has not ruled him out as a presidential contender in 2012. Although the US and Britain are different political contexts - this is the nature of politics, support from the electorate fluctuates. The Lib Dems are new to government and to coalitions. In this case, the first vote post-general election turned out especially bad for the 'rookies'. 

Glimmers of hope

While it all may seem like doom and gloom, there are some interesting anomalies in pockets across the country that could bring a glimmer of hope to the Lib Dem 2012 campaign. Take Bath and North East Somerset (BANES) for example. In May 2011 the Lib Dems took three seats from the Conservatives and, with backing from the Labour Party, have taken control of the council. But, can the success in BANES be replicated in other areas? 

Before we get ahead of ourselves, there were some unique circumstances in BANES that helped the Lib Dems do well. Paul Crossley, the Lib Dem leader of the council, attributes this success to their ability to communicate with voters and differentiate local elections from a referendum on the coalition. This may be true but there are other factors that also added to their success. 

Firstly, up until 2007, the Lib Dems ran the council. Under their control, the council funded a number of controversial schemes that they ultimately paid for in the ballot box. The elections in 2011 had given the Lib Dems enough time to re-group and meant that they no longer suffered from the incumbency factor.  Secondly, the size and density of Bath means that it is an ideal place to run an on the ground campaign (leaflet drops, door canvassing etc). This is something that the Lib Dems are known for being effective at and is partly why they usually do so well in local elections. 

Finally, the local Lib Dem MP, Don Foster, did very well in the last general election. This gave the BANES Lib Dem campaign organisers a lot of canvas data along with a large core of supporters to call on. These three ingredients combined made BANES a recipe for success but also a unique case and unlikely to be transferred to other councils. 

Voters turning away from the party

Given that local government elections are usually a strength for the Liberal Democrats, last year was without doubt a setback for the party. The voters that the Lib Dems have relied on in past are turning away from the party in favour of others or not voting at all.  BANES may have bucked the trend; however it is unlikely that other areas will be able to replicate the series of factors that lead to their success. 

Recent polling figures paint a picture of a steadied decline in support but can the Lib Dems stop their loss of local government seats? In the short term, the brief answer is no but do not count them out just yet. With all political parties, support ebbs and flows. 2012 may prove to be another unsuccessful year but their future will be pinned on their performance nationally and their ability to establish an independent, truly Liberal Democrat voice within the coalition.


By Nikki Davies