Local Election Preview

England: A new system of governance on offer for English cities as labour seek to bounce back

A patchwork of English local authorities face elections this year, notably in the urban conurbations of the North East, North West and Yorkshire where Labour will be targeting nothing short of outright dominance. It also looks likely that Birmingham will swing back to Labour having been run by a Conservative / Liberal Democrat coalition.

The Lib Dems national unpopularity may also lead the Conservatives to gain overall control in Cheltenham, Colchester, Mole Valley and Winchester. However, typically the Lib Dem support will be very strong in certain wards which may make this aim more difficult than polls predict. For the Lib Dems the election will be about seeking to retain what they already hold. There may be some small scale success for the Green Party as their relative strong spots of Norwich and Stroud have elections.

Ten cities in England will also be holding a referendum on whether to have a directly elected Mayor, with the exception of Liverpool which will actually be electing their Mayor having opted to “jump the queue” and passing the Mayoral decision through full council. Polling suggests most referendums will lead to wins for the Yes camp. Birmingham, Bristol, Manchester and Newcastle in particular look to be set to choose a Mayoral system. The Mayor will be voted for by the whole electorate and have executive powers to make policy. There will still be councillors as well, but the seat of power will shift to the directly elected Mayor. The Government hopes that this will lead to stronger city leadership and a better connection with the electorate. If cities opt for a Mayor, they will elect them on 15^th November 2012.

Wales: In 2011 labour limped to something of a comeback but can they re-assert dominance in Wales this time?

Labour had a poor local election results in 2008 and will expect to make take back serious ground  on this occasion. Much of their success will depend on whether those Labour-inclined voters who stayed at home in 2008 vote in 2012. They have ambitions to re-gain Newport and re-establish majority control in a number of the South Wales Valley local authorities. North East Wales will also offer the opportunity for further Labour gains.

The Lib Dems will be battling hard to retain their impressive victories which saw them leading the councils in three of Wales’ four largest urban areas.  They will also hope to retain councillors in Ceredigion and Powys. 

Plaid Cymru face their first election with Leanne Wood as leader and will hope this boosts their profile in the valleys battlegrounds with Labour, notably Caerphilly where the council is on a knife-edge between the two parties.

The Conservatives currently have outright majorities in Monmouthshire and Vale of Glamorgan, both of which they should hold. If they also cling to control in Newport as lead party in a coalition, then it becomes a very good night for the Tories. A good night becomes exceptional if they take control in Conwy but that remains an outside chance.

Scotland: Can anyone stop the SNP tide?

Scotland uses proportional representation for its local elections and the net effect is that only four authorities out of 32 have overall control, two with Labour in charge and two with Independent groups. Despite starting from a high point the SNP still hopes to make gains against all the other parties and Labour will be just as concerned to constrain this growth as they will of making gains themselves. The Conservatives and Lib Dems will be battling to try and remain relevant north of the border.